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Brexit: where there's life, there's hope

Posted by Thersites on UTC 2018-11-24 14:11.

Given this website's miserable predictive record, this piece is not to be taken too seriously. However, given that no one else has any idea what is going to happen with Brexit, we'll be proved wrong in good company.

It has been clear since the last general election that a majority of MPs in parliament want to remain in the EU.

Because of this, the government had to come up with a withdrawal agreement that is for all intents and purposes a remain agreement. This it has done. The so called 'will of the people' is of no consequence whatever. The assurance that Parliament would respect the outcome of the referendum was also mere political flatulence.

How to achieve this non-Brexit? Mess around apparently aimlessly until there is no time left to negotiate any other arrangement. Produce a withdrawal deal that is really a stay-in deal. For most people the no-deal alternative is unthinkable.

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Brexit Air will be leaving on 30 March 2019. Just need to carry out the last take-off checks. Image: Rita Morais on Unsplash.

Leak a lot of ostensibly negative material saying how Remainerish the withdrawal agreement is. The argument that the withdrawal agreement does not take the UK out of the EU is really an argument for, not against it. Leavers banging on about this theme will ensure that even the dimmest Remain MP gets the message. The Leavers are going to dislike it anyway – but they are not of parliamentary importance.

The EU is happy. Equally importantly, the great Remainer majority of MPs in Parliament will be happy. Parliament will accept the withdrawal agreement comfortably.

May's position is secure. There are not enough Brexiteer Tories to defenestrate her. Even if the Tory grumblers manage to trigger a leadership election, no one else will get the support of the parliamentary party. If the malcontents try and fail, she will be untouchable for a year thereafter. No Leave candidate for leadership is acceptable to the majority of Tories. No other Leave solution is acceptable to the majority of MPs. Brexiteer MPs are in a minority both in the Tory party and in parliament. No one cares what they think or want.

There are enough Labour Remainers to negate any vote of no confidence or sabotage from the DUP. Even if there is a general election, and even if Labour wins, it will either stop Brexit or push through the withdrawal agreement anyway.

At any future general election Brexit will no longer be an issue and the Remainers will be safe. Between 30 and 40 percent of the electorate can't be bothered to vote at general elections anyway, even more at other elections. There will never ever be another referendum in Britain on any politically meaningful subject whatsoever. The Brexiteers had their shot at leaving the EU and failed – time to move on.

The small band of diehard Leavers will carry on muttering about treachery for a year or two, but any one who mentions suspending traitorous MPs from lamposts will be up before the beak PDQ – that terrorism and hate-speech legislation will come in really handy for the management of dissent.